Bullets or Beans

It seems that a typical reaction of most middle class men to the idea of societal collapse from peak oil and climate change is an immediate move to "survivalist" requirements.   The thought that many bullets will ensure security, and that they will be one of the survivors thanks to their mighty arsenal, has come up a few times in my conversations with people.  Also implied in their advice is  that my efforts are pointless because the gangs will come and rip out my gardens and take my solar panels.  Well, they might!  Or maybe they just move in, and end up being a security force.   

For example, here is a kind suggestion from a reader:

I would not want to bank on survival in the LA area without major fortifications at your urban kabbutz. So I'd increase your capital spend plan over next 2 years to include:

 

6 foot fencing with razor wire top and electrification option

Water purification system for long periods of isolation due to public unrest

Ditto for Electric generation -- large diesel generator and storage capacity -- careful diesel does not store well longer than 1 year.

Double Barrell shotgun

Hand Gun

Ammunition -- 1 year supply assuming all local sources depleted

Medical Supplies

Batteries for Cell Phones

Emergency Radio

A couple fierce dogs might also be good but they need to be feed so there are trade offs

All of this defensive posturing completely misses the point.  The point is not to build a compound isolated from my surrounding community, as if the neighbors and gang members that live here are somehow Other, and not interested in living comfortably as well.   

The point is building the Future.   The point is discovering at this very low level of a suburban corner HOW to live in accord with our natural foundations here, HOW to live unplugged from the industrial food chain, HOW to create local food security as we move beyond the oil dependent concept of Suburb.  It's not about "survival" at all, its about the Future.  

We all can't move to Oregon.   We all can't run to the hills.  That illusion I abused back in 2005. We need to stay where we are, and put our efforts into transforming our communities back into the heaven they were before oil and coal created this suburban consumer nightmare.   Localizing, permaculturing, and developing LOCAL light industry can create the thriving LOCAL economy that is true security.  

Beans over bullets. 

I can't eat bullets, you can't eat bullets, my neighbor can't eat bullets, and a gun makes for a very poor shovel.  My choice is to learn the skills I need to provide my requirements here on a little corner of Los Angeles.   If the imaginary raging hoardes of Angelinos suddenly appear on my doorstep to steal my solar panels, well, thats how it goes.   Maybe I can recruit them to help with the compost, or maybe I become one of the billions of people that this planet will shed over the next hundred years.  Either way, I am storing beans, not bullets.   

Peace and compost,

Thom

      

Collapse -This is not a dress rehearsal

A beautiful Sunday morning in my pre-collapse world.  The only murmurings of our future state are in my head, breakfast is being served, and few interesting articles of note pop up on my morning screen.   I am always looking for news or data that would refute my premise, but quite frankly, I rarely find any that are based on real metrics or experience.  What I do run across this morning is confirmation of what I already suspected regarding our climate dilemma: 

http://tinyurl.com/bd7u4b

One area of comfort for me has been the readings in paleoclimatology with its reassurance that the universe is functioning perfectly and the planet is just seeking balance.  This balance will be achieved at the cost of the humans, but thats just the way it goes.  Payback is a bitch. 

So, okay, no shock here, just more confirmation.  I then stumble across a wonderful speech by my new hero Dimitry Orlov, a man whose humour and insight I find to be a pragmatic light as we move forward in the gathering gloom.  His experience and insight into the Collapse of the Soviet Empire, and most importantly his pragamtic advice on what to expect are a reality check for us all.  He resonates and informs me on my project here, this attempt to take all the policy, science, energy broad strokes and turn them into realizable personal daily actions of preparation and change.  He gives me a lens to focus this activity, and allows me to see the consequences that I should be preparing for.   Granted, I delineated these for myself back in 2005:  food, water, shelter, electricity.   The task I have set for myself is HOW to provide these with minimal inputs from the failing industrial and political and financial systems around me. Thats the experiment here, to answer the question of how do you live with sustainable natural inputs in a suburban setting.  

To date, my house is much more energy efficient in terms of heating and cooling, having been retrofitted with new windows, roof insulation etc etc.   I acquire tools and material on a regular basis, and half of my yard is now garden.   But in fact, I need a few more years, and in fact, that is probably all I have to secure the foundations of what I feel I need in place to surf the wave of the social and climate changes coming my way.

Here in Southern California, it becomes evident that drought will force us all to a more disciplined water management. This year, my focus is on water and gardens.  I intend to learn and implement the skills necessary to provide and manage the water for gardens, and to  continue the expansion of my food growing capacity here on this corner. Permaculture the surrounds, and learn, learn , learn about the low water techniques for gardening.  Maybe even re-read Dune.

Dimitry Orlov's speech resonated with everything I am attempting here.   When people speak from deep experience ( a la Matt "learn to grow food" Simmons)  I tend to listen.   Orlovs "Social Collapse Best Practices" is well worth the candle :

http://energybulletin.net/node/48082

Peace, drip,  and compost

Thom

 

Emergency Sequence Started...you have 3 minutes...

The more I watch this the more it feels like the closing sequence of Alien, as the planet and human economies keep repeating "you have 3 minutes to self destruct"  and Sigourney is running around looking for her cat...her cat for gods sake.  

Anyone ready to start the transition?  I am hearing all kinds of business as usual solutions, even from the Mahdi Obama, but not much discussion on re-thinking this whole centralized industrial era game that is folding up.  

Can we honestly look at the current manifestation of civilization, and say with confidence that it is working?  Or is it time to tear it apart, and begin a new paradigm?  Does centralized government, power, food, mfg and distribution make sense any more?  Or do we need to re-localize and create a new distributed model, an InterTown model of civil endeavour?   Towns of Towns make a country just as networks of networks make an Internet, a very effective way to distribute processing and facilitate communication while eliminating single points of failure within a system.  (I love peanut butter. single points of failure for peanut butter is really serious shyte to me.) 

When does the mainstream wake up and say The Emperor(s)  have no clothes, and have been butt ass naked and stealing my stuff for quite some time? Will this Greatest Depression be that time? It starts to appear so as I look at Europe and Russia and the rumblings beginning there.  Or, as a friend so lucidly points out, do we keep the game going with debt and stimulus, or do we just kick the can down the road to our grandchildren, and wring our hands about our lack of economic growth?   

I find it hopeful that David Meadows was honored by the Japanese last week - Limits To Growth now appears to make a lot of sense :)  I find it disturbing that we are in our 3rd consecutive year of drought here, with a big decline in Sierra snowpack.  (oh, just like those pesky computer climate models predicted).  

It's a finite planet , with finite resources. All energy ultimately comes from the sun.  This game can not sustain, so overshoot and collapse are the usual outcome of our type of behavior, whether it is Easter island, the Mayans, or a petri dish of yeast.  Are we ready for those consequences?     

For me, these are all rhetorical questions of course, I am still convinced we are watching the accelerating  train wreck of human civilization from economic greed and planetary abuse.  The klaxons are sounding on starship Earth, and ooooops.....there is no escape pod.  Too bad for us, this ain't hollywood...but have your people call my people and we'll do lunch.  

Peace Love and hope that the Navajo (or Amish) will adopt me, 

Thom

Overshoot

So, it's the 23rd of the month, payday is the 30th, and I am out of cash.  That's overshoot on a personal basis.  I use my credit card to make it through, thus stealing cash from next month, and hope to tighten up next month and have money left by the 30th, maybe enough to pay back the credit card.  Or maybe I just spread that borrowing over time, and let my kids pay it all back when I am dead.     

Scale that up, and thats how we live now on a macro level.  

The Limits to Growth, recently recognized by Japan (finally...see previous post)  lays out this scenario, several of them,  and demonstrate the effects of Overshoot.  In most cases, the effect is Collapse.  

Dana Visalli has provided a wonderful essay on this. (thank you Dana!!):  

http://www.methownaturalist.com/page16.html

The most salient line to me is what she writes here: 

 

In the end mind-based belief structures overwhelmed ecological reality, and the culture collapsed.

But wait!!!   WE are different,  right? WE have technology!!    WE are much more sophisticated than these silly Easter Islanders, or the Mayans, or the Anassi...or yeast.   All cultures that overconsumed beyond their carrying capacity pursuing mind based belief systems (except the yeast)... and...uh...collapsed.    

It can't happen here, right?  

Earth Overshoot Day 2008

http://www.footprintnetwork.org/gfn_sub.php?content=overshoot

One useful definition of insanity is persisting in the same behaviors and expecting different results.   

Time to start moving our "mind-based belief structures" back to an accord with ecological reality.   Feed your mind.  

And with that, it's time for me to turn my compost.