It is becoming increasingly apparent that the train has left the station for the demise of Industrial civilization. Rather than being a set of chilling thought experiments or doomer fantasies, the Long Descent now underway will be an exciting time of innovation, action movie, and zombie technologies morphing into a new way of life.

Out of the Fog of Collapse there are a few voices of clarity that stand out due to their pragmatic, realistic, yet hopeful suggestions for a way to proceed. Some apply dark humour, some provide dry dusty data, and some provide integration of the data sets with the right harmonic of solutions to the oncoming transition times. Many of these voices can be heard here:

http://energybulletin.net

John Michael Greer is one of these chaps. I've been following his blog out on the Energy Bulletin for a few years, and just finished his book The Long Descent where he pulls together the problem and offers some possible solutions. He writes beautifully, is well versed in the Peak Oil data sets, and hails back to a time we are all familiar with, offering anew many of the solutions which might have made this a more leisurely journey if we had persisted in them back in the 70's.

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

Appropriate technology, gardens, compost, bikes, and working with Nature instead of beating her to death. I want to build this world, and sweep up the current capitalist manifestation into the compost pile. From this seat, there are about 3 years left to continue to have access to relatively cheap fuel, which we can use to get some foundations in place for a lower tech, lower energy future. After that, the wheels look to come off this game, in not so slow motion, just like Saint Donella told us in Limits to Growth.

All the latest energy reports from DOD, , universities , and even the venerable Lloyd's seem to be circling the 2012-2015 time frame when the planet starts losing the ability to meet the demand for oil, DOD and others expecting a 10% shortfall. And then it is just down the slope of 4% depletion rate per year from there on out ad infinitum. Not a show stopper, not an immediate collapse, hell in 20 years we will still be producing as much oil as we were in 1970, but with China and India joining the fray of the last minutes of Industry, the depletion curve might move a bit quicker than expected.

In 1990 , two countries lost 10% of their oil imports - Cuba and N. Korea - when the Soviet Union collapsed. One country, Cuba, weathered it because they had local communities with a small garden ethic, and were willing to roll back to less energy intensive technologies. The other country, followed a path of the aristocracy protecting themselves, allowed 1 million of the 'small' people to starve to death. It seems to matter which choice you make.

Anyway, same old story. Look busy, Santa's coming.

Peace Love and composting toilets,

Thom